Fat in Swedish means keg, so I did a Swedish interpretation of today’s prompt.
When my associations went to keg it also went to a wonderful Swedish song by Hans Alfredsson from the 70’s. It’s about a glass of beer.
Here’s a Google translation of lyrics
Beer – Hans Alfredsson
When you look at how the children grow up and make efforts,
Can you wonder if the children do anything like us?
If there is a job, if there is food
if it’s decent where they live,
are there sheep and cows and water and air?
Can they sunbathe free, are there flowers and leaves?
Do they have pork and potatoes, can they have a bath?
The future seems gloomy when you rub over a glass of beer
but one hopes the kids will get a glass of beer.
Feel good at the heat of a Sarakrog.
Rose red and sky blue it should be.
Our lives are not just knots.
Beer is good, for example.
When you look at how the children grow up and make efforts,
Can you wonder if the children do anything like us?
If there is a job, if there is food
if it’s decent where they live,
are there sheep and cows and water and air?
Do they have daughters and sons, they have accordion and waltz,
Do they still have brown beans, do they have anything at all?
The future seems gloomy when you rub over a glass of beer
but hope that the kids still have a glass of beer!
Jag försökte mig på ett litet epost-samtal med Trosas kommunalråd
I had a little email-talk with Trosa Municipal Council Chairman
Från: Anna Bohlin
Till: Daniel Portnoff
Ämne: Fråga om tillväxt-prognos
Hej!
Ni har meddelat att Trosa kommun nu växer snabbare än de beslutade 150 pers/år och i år har ökat med 500 pers istället. Det väcker följande fråga:
Om Trosa ska växa med drygt 4% per år istället för som beslutat med 150 pers/år, har vi ekonomisk beredskap för en fördubblad befolkning inom 16 år, vilket kommer vara fallet om tillväxten på drygt 4% per år fortsätter?
Vänliga hälsningar
Anna Bohlin
translation to english (sorry if it’s a bad translation)
From: Anna Bohlin
To: Daniel Portnoff
Subject: Ask about growth forecast
Hey!
You have announced that Trosa municipality now grows faster than they decided 150 persons / year and this year has increased by 500 persons instead. This raises the following question:
If Trosa is to grow by just over 4% per year instead of as decided at 150 persons / year, are we financially prepared for a doubling population within 16 years, which will be the case if growth of just over 4% per year continues?
Sincerely
Anna Bohlin
Hej Anna,
Just nu växer Trosa kommun och många andra kommuner i tillväxtområden mer än vad vi brukar. Det hänger ihop med att det är högkonjunktur och byggandet är omfattade i många kommuner i landet. Inflyttningen varierar med konjunkturen och så kommer det att vara även framöver. Mellan 2008 och 2012 växte vi med 167 personer. Mellan 2012 och 2016 växte vi med 918 personer. Dvs. under tioårsperioden växte vi i snitt med cirka 110 personer per år. Eftersom vi är väl medvetna om att befolkningstillväxt inte är konstant planerar vi långsiktigt. Just nu är vi inne i hög tillväxttakt men vår bedömning är att den är konjunkturberoende. Per den sista augusti 2017 (som är Scb:s senaste uppgifter) har vi vuxit med 358 personer.
Utifrån befolkningsstruktur, planerad byggnation i Översiktsplanen och konjunkturförändringar är vår bedömning att under de kommande tio åren kommer vi att fortsatt ligga på en befolkningstillväxt i hela kommunen om 1,5-2 % per år i snitt. Det kommer att innebära vissa rekordår då vi kommer upp i högre procent, liksom andra år då vi hamnar lägre.
I vår kommunala ekonomi är befolkningstillväxt viktigt. Rätt hanterat så bidrar det till en starkare och stabilare ekonomi. Vi får mer skatteintäkter för varje invånare, fler som tillsammans kan finansiera befintliga och kommande investeringar samt ett stabilare befolkningsunderlag för att bedriva skola och förskola men även exempelvis föreningsverksamhet och företagande.
Med vänlig hälsning
Daniel Portnoff
Daniel Portnoff (m)
Kommunstyrelsens ordförande
Trosa kommun http://www.trosa.se
Hi Anna,
Right now, Trosa Municipality and many other municipalities grow in growth areas more than we usually use. This is due to the fact that there is a boom and the construction is covered in many municipalities in the country. Movement varies with the business cycle and will continue to be in the future. Between 2008 and 2012, we grew 167 people. Between 2012 and 2016, we grew with 918 people. Ie Over the ten-year period, we grow on average with about 110 people a year. Because we are well aware that population growth is not constant we plan on long term. Right now we are in high growth rates, but our assessment is that it is cyclically dependent. By the end of August 2017 (which is Scb’s latest data) we have grown by 358 people.
Based on population structure, planned construction in the Overview Plan and cyclical changes, we estimate that over the next ten years we will continue to see population growth in the entire municipality of 1.5-2% per annum on average. It will mean some record years when we get up in higher percentages, as are other years when we end up lower.
In our municipal economy, population growth is important. Correctly handled, this contributes to a stronger and more stable economy. We receive more tax revenues for each citizen, more people who together can finance existing and future investments and a more stable population base for school and preschool, but also for example, associations and entrepreneurship.
Sincerely
Daniel Portnoff
Daniel Portnoff (m)
Municipal Council Chairman
Trosa municipality http://www.trosa.se
Re: Fråga om tillväxt-prognos
Tack Daniel för svar!
Ditt svar väcker nya frågor.
Vilket tillväxtmål är det som gäller? Du uppger olika uppgifter i svaret.
Enligt uppgift från kommunen har tillväxtmålet om ca 150 personer per år beslutats.
Det medför en fallande procentuell tillväxt, vilket innebär en mer långsam fördubblingseffekt.
Du anger i svaret att ni siktar på 1,5%-2% per år. Det betyder att ni har ett högre mål än 150 pers/år.
Det innebär att fördubblingstakten kan variera mellan 35 och 46 år.
Har vi beredskap för att hantera en tidigareläggning av fördubblingseffekten med 11 år?
Vad gör vi om tillväxten ligger över 2%, vilken beredskap finns för att hantera fördubblingseffekten ännu tidigare än 35 år?
De tillväxtsiffror som du nämner i svaret innebär att vi fram till 2021 behöver växa med 52 personer per år för att motsvara snittet på 150 pers per år.
Räknar ni med att konjunkturnedgången blir så pass kraftig de närmaste åren att tillväxten nästan avstannar i Trosa kommun?
Du nämner att befolkningstillväxten är viktig för den kommunala ekonomin och att den bidrar till en starkare och stabilare ekonomi.
Ni uppger i er officiella information att vi redan har en stark och stabil ekonomi. Vilken uppgift stämmer?
Du nämner också att befolkningstillväxten innebär att fler tillsammans kan finansiera befintliga och kommande investeringar.
Ni tillämpar differentierad finansiering av investeringar genom t ex exploateringsintäkter. Vilken uppgift stämmer?
Jag tvivlar inte på era goda intentioner med kommunens utveckling, jag får bara inte ihop den information ditt svar försöker ge mig.
För vilken tillväxttakt har vi beredskap?
Vänliga hälsningar
Anna
Thank you Daniel for answers!
Your answer raises new questions.
What is the growth goal? You provide different tasks in the answer.
According to the municipality, the growth goal of about 150 people per year has been decided.
This entails a drop in percentage growth, which means a more slow doubling effect.
You indicate in the answer that you aim at 1.5% -2% per year. This means you have a higher goal than 150 people per year.
This means that the doubling rate may vary between 35 and 46 years.
Are we prepared to handle an early warning of the doubling effect by 11 years?
What do we do if growth is above 2%, what preparedness is available to handle the doubling effect even earlier than 35 years?
The growth figures mentioned in the answer mean that by 2021 we need to grow by 52 people a year to correspond to the average of 150 people per year.
Do you expect the cyclical downturn to be so strong in the next few years that growth almost stops in Trosa municipality?
You mention that population growth is important for the municipal economy and that it contributes to a stronger and more stable economy.
You state in your official information that we already have a strong and stable economy. What task is correct?
You also mention that population growth means that more together can finance existing and future investments.
You apply differentiated financing of investments through, for example, exploitation income. Which info is correct?
I do not doubt your good intentions with the municipality’s development, I just do not get the information your answer tries to give me.
What growth goal are we prepared for?
Sincerely
Anna
Jag har inte fått något svar på mina uppföljningsfrågor ännu. Tror ni att jag kommer få några svar?
I haven’t received an answer to my questions in email no 2 yet. Do you think I will get answers?
Om du vill lära dig mer om exponentialeffekten kan du se inledningen av denna film. Den är på engelska, men du kommer snabbt fatta poängen ändå.
If you want to know more about the exponential effect watch this talk. You just have to se the beginning to get the picture.
I did a drawing of the growth and the doubling effect.
Finally I have managed to find some time for my drawing goals for 2017. I have 103 drawings to create. This is no 26, so it’s still a long way to go before I hit the finish line.
The story comes from a Swedish poem about a space journey. Mankind has destroyed Earth and cannot live there anymore. They travel through space in a spaceship that broke down after start. They have no longer control over ship.
This drawing is about when dead people talk through stones about the horrible explosion that made Earth, ears and eyes broke down. They shout with Kassandra and the guide in the spaceship get the sad message through their jumbotron-like screen that his beloved is dead.
What if we ll could stand on that wall and tear it down by convincing the climat changes deniers that Mother Nature will save us if we pay better respect to her. A team teeming encouragement for saving planet Earth. Well, the earth will survive no matter waht, but will we humans survive as long as Mother Earth?
Of course Pink Floyds Another brick in the wall inspired part of this drawing idea.
First answer to my draw a stickman challenge! I think this is a great drawing. I played football (or soccer as the americans call it) in my youth and that was so much fun, so this drawing takes me back to memory lane. For comments, please visit original post/Anna
Everyone can draw. We just do it with different results. So now I challenge you all to draw a stickman or whatever you like.
If you don’t have pen and paper, download a free drawing app, there’s tons of them, draw your drawing, make a post on your blog and leave a link here in the comments so we can find your stickman or stickwoman 🙂
It’s not about how it looks, it’s about having fun when you draw.
So, this challenge goes for me too. I have to draw a stickman now, see ya!
I got a rough start on inktober with today’s prompt. But in the art world you can draw your lack of ideas, so I did a drawing on the shattered prompt despite that I have no ideas 🙂
The prompt made me remember a hit from the eighties though
If you want to join the inktober challenge read this
And this
I really like this challenge. It is so much fun. Find time for it!
One of my Save Trosa nature friends and I have worked on a report. We have examined if the project new big road can proceed without negative climate effects. It can’t, so we told the authorities and media. Here’s the first news article about our report. You can read it in Swedish at itrosa.se.
Here’s what the Swedish news article says:
Municipalities Ingrid Benson and Anna Bohlin have examined the project New big road and the exploitation of the Tureholm Peninsula. They have compiled a 10-point list of climate councils that Trosa Municipality has not taken into account. The following press release has been published to media and environmental stakeholders:
Project New big road and the exploitation of Western Trosa – Tureholm Peninsula will counteract climate targets of 10 points.
In a review of the project based on climate reports from the Swedish Transport Administration, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, the Regional Association and the County Administrative Board, it appears that Trosa municipality in projects in Western Trosa
will strongly counter all established international, national, regional and local climate targets.
The review also shows that the municipality can cancel the projects and yet achieve the growth targets the municipality has set up.
The review letter “Has the climate goals been included in the planning of new big road and the exploitation of Western Trosa – Tureholm Peninsula?” Has been sent to decision-makers in Trosa Municipality, County Administrative Board, Regional Federation, Swedish Transport Agency, Swedish National Agency for Housing, the Environment and Energy, the Ministry of Energy, the Environment and Energy, the media and other actors which has the potential to influence a community development that promotes climate goals.
Trosa municipality politicians and other decision makers in the project today have a unique opportunity to cancel the project before it adversely affects the environment and the climate. The municipality then has the opportunity to launch climate-smart growth projects that strengthen migration attractiveness and the brand as an ecommerce community, thus fulfilling all climate goals, the reviewers believe.
We can only be ourselves. It isn’t always easy to find out how to be yourself, but it is worth all the trying to get there, that much I can say.
I believe it takes the whole life to find out how to be ourselves. Maybe that’s our life task?
So Be you! That should be easy actually. You don’t have to imitate others and be afraid you can’t imitate, you don’t have to figure out how others might have opinions about how you should be, you don’t have to listen to anyone but your good inner self.
Just be you. If you succeed you will notice that some people will try to imitate you instead of the other way round.
We must be a small world. It feels like I have traveled all over the world just by blogging away in a way that we all do. I can sit in my little corner of the world and reach out so far. It’s unbelievable but also truly amazing.
We can interact with each other no matter where in the world we are. That must be a true peace project I think.
Just look at this. This is my favorite stats. The map showing where you all come from.
To me this is just wow stats!
It like the never ending olympics country flag parades.
I never regret I started blogging. This is the fun part. Talking to people from all over the world. Thank you for being here all of you!
I found an old painting. I ilke it. Makes me remember summer days.
We’re in a rainy month now. We need the rain, but the darkness this time of year gets even darker with the rainy clouds. So I try to lighten up inside by remember summer days 🙂
Tails up is significant for this bird. I’ve only seen pictures of it before, but now it showed up near the house for a short while before it flew away again.
